Prior coding: From WTP estimates to priors

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Prior coding: From WTP estimates to priors

Postby jonashl » Tue May 13, 2014 5:20 pm

I have an experiment where I have some knowledge from previous research on the magnitude of WTP for (most of) the features in my DCE.
So my question is, how do I get from payment estimates to the regression estimates used in the description of priors?

My idea is to do the following:
1. Get min-max estimates for WTP based on previous research
2. Make an educated guess on a min-max parameter value for the price parameter, e.g. -0.1 to -0.0006
3. Use the price parameter to transform the WTP estimates to parameter intervals to construct uniform priors for the other attributes.
I am not sure wether this should be done by a) multiplying the mean price parameter prior with the WTP estimate limits, or allow for wider intervals by b) multiplying low price prior limit with low WTP and correspondingly with the high limits.

Q1) What do you think of this approach? Is there a better strategy? And would you go for maximum uncertainty in parameter priors based on price prior*WTP (ie widest uniform limits under step 3.) or multiply with the mean expected price parameter?

Q2) For the attributes where I do not have a prior - can I leave those at zero or should I rather make a wide guess to avoid that the attributes with priors will dominate the utility functions?

I also have two quick questions regarding the syntax for dummy effects:
My code will look something like this:
U(alt1)=b1[(u,-0.06,-0.03)]*A[-1,0] + b2[(u,0.04,-0.09)]*B[0,1] + b3.dummy[(u,0.09,0.18)|(u,0.06,0.12)]*C[10,20,40] +b4[(u,-0.011,-0.0006)]*price[20,50,100]

Q3) Is it equivalent to write two-level dummies as I have done above with b1 and b2 and to write it out as e.g. b2.dummy[]*B[]?

Q4) With attribute C (minutes) I assume linear effect, but may wish to test this. Therefore I have coded it with dummy. However, the uniform intervals reflect equal per minute disutility for the levels 10 and 20 (compared with 40 as base).
Is this an ok way to model that I expect linearity, but may wish to model the stepwise effects - or is this just equivalent to coding it as a linear effect?

Looking forward to your response!
Thanks :)
jonashl
 
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Re: Prior coding: From WTP estimates to priors

Postby Michiel Bliemer » Tue May 13, 2014 6:07 pm

Q2: If you have no idea about the priors of some attributes. not even the sign, then you can leave them zero. In case you know the sign, I would suggest putting in a Bayesian prior with a uniform distribution that is not too wide (as otherwise these values could dominate the design too much). If you do not know the sign, I would suggest that you put in a Bayesian prior with a normal distribution with mean zero and a not too large standard deviation.

Q3: b1[(u,-0.06,-0.03)]*A[-1,0] + b2[(u,0.04,-0.09)]*B[0,1] is equivalent to b1.dummy[(u,-0.06,-0.03)]*A[-1,0] + b2.dummy[(u,0.04,-0.09)]*B[1,0]
Note that the only change is the order in which the attribute levels occur, as the last level is the base level. So, in case of two levels, linear coding is essentially the same as dummy coding

Q4: Yes this is the appropriate way to code it. It is not the same as linear coding, as Ngene is optimising to estimate 2 dummy coefficients for b3, instead of a single b3 coefficient, so the way you propose to do it is correct.

Q1 is not really an Ngene related question but is more a question with respect to experimental design, willingness to pay, statistics and econometrics. I would invite you to put this question separately on our other new forum which deals with such more general questions.I do not have an answer immediately, but I will think about it.
Michiel Bliemer
 
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Re: Prior coding: From WTP estimates to priors

Postby jonashl » Wed May 14, 2014 7:16 pm

Thankyou for the response. I will post the first question in the new forum ;)
jonashl
 
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Joined: Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:37 pm


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